To Harden Fans: Stephen Curry’s the Real MVP

I get it. A Warriors writer trumpeting Steph Curry for MVP is like being underwhelmed by a 3D movie or bored by “breaking news” - it is predictable. But, this one’s special for Warriors fans.

The last Warriors MVP (Wilt Chamberlin) was crowned the same year the Civil Rights Act was enacted (1960). The Warriors haven’t even had a player reach Top Five in MVP voting since Rick Barry in 1976. Meanwhile, Houston got Moses Malone (2x MVP) & Hakeem Olajuwon (1x), Cleveland got Lebron who attracts MVPs like ABC attracts bad TV shows, and OKC got an entire franchise plus an MVP (Durant). The last Warriors MVP played for the Philadelphia Warriors. So yes, this means a lot to us.

You know the story. This is a two player debate…

• Lebron hibernated in Miami for two weeks during the season which eliminates him.

• OKC’s 13 & 11 since Westbrook entered alien mode (February 24th), which isn’t an exactly breathtaking record.

• Chris Paul, his ankles, and twitter can all attest that CP3’s out of consideration.

This is Curry vs. Harden. But instead of the same MVP article you’ve read on ESPN for months, I want to help you with something that actually matters: defeating Curry MVP haters in the sports fan’s equivalent of the boxing ring, the debate. Here are a couple of the biggest pro-Harden arguments.

1) “Steph’s got an incredible supporting cast. Harden puts the team on his back!”

This is classic Steph slander. Yet, there’s been some revisionist history on the quality of the teammates around Steph. A mere six months ago Steph was playing with a shooting guard who ought to be in Minnesota, small forwards failing to live up to the hype, an utterly undersized power forward, and a center destined for the training table. Now, the media treats the rest of the Warriors like they’ve been perennial world-beaters.

Yes, the role players have improved but, quality teammates shouldn’t damage one’s MVP bid. Durant didn’t get punished for Westbrook & Ibaka, same with Lebron for Wade & Bosh, and Jordan for Pippen & Rodman. Don’t forget, last season the Warriors also had the league’s best starting five. They’ve switched two of those five and the starting unit is still the league’s best. The common denominator: Curry.

With Curry on the court the Warriors have a positive 16.8 plus-minus. With Curry off the court the Warriors free-fall to a negative 3.1 plus-minus - equivalent to the Charlotte Hornets. Comparatively, the Rockets only drop 7.6 in plus-minus when Harden comes out; that’s a little more than one-third of the Warriors’ drop-off without Curry. Yet, it’s Harden whose presence means more?

2) “But, Curry’s just the best player on the best team. The award is Most Valuable Player, not Best Player on the Best Team!”

If Harden campaigners are so obsessed with value then why not examine value the way the rest of society evaluates it: production vs. compensation. While Harden counts $14.7 million against the cap, Curry’s deal is arguably the best in basketball at $10.6 million. Let’s say you view Harden and Curry as identical players and your’e consumed by the word “value”, you’d still choose Curry!

Yet, as FiveThiryEight’s Neil Paine recently pointed out, MVP has statistically proven to be in part a
function of wins. The Warriors aren’t just winning, they’re winning on an all-time scale. Excluding the past two weeks in which the Warriors haven’t had much to compete for, the Warriors possess a 10.8 plus-minus for the season. That number’s equal the ’96 Bulls plus-minus, the best since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976. Better yet, they’re doing all of this in the Western Conference -one of the NBA’s best conferences in recent memory.

Remember, this league wrecking offense is built around Curry. Curry’s an NBA glitch. Every screen for or by Curry presents a mini-crisis for opponents. Defensive rotations are entirely altered by the fact that Curry’s guy literately can’t play any help defense. The threat of Curry off the ball separates him from Harden off the ball. When Curry passes, teams enter high alert; when Harden passes, opponents relax.

3) “But isn’t Harden the bastion of the NBA’s fancy stats?”

Yes, Harden’s threes or layups only style is the analytical dream. Yet, outside of the “counting stats” (points, rebounds, steals, etc.), which are essentially useless due to the drastic difference in minutes played between Curry and Harden, Curry’s “fancy stats” exceed Harden’s. I’ll use three of the most commonly accepted analytics:

• Win Shares per 48 Minutes: Curry = 0.289 (1st in the league) and Harden = 0.264 (4th).
  The estimated number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes.

• Real Plus-Minus: Curry = 8.87 (1st in the league) and Harden = 8.30 (3rd).
  Plus-minus adjusting for the effects of each teammate, opposing player, and coach.

• PER: Curry = 28.05 (3rd in the league) and Harden = 26.82 (5th).
  The effectiveness of a player, adjusting for minutes player; can overweight offense.

Sure these aren’t incredible gaps between the two, but the Curry MVP argument isn’t dependent on data. It purely serves to show that in Harden’s field of formulas, Curry still wins.

4) “But if they switched teams, the Rockets would hardly be a playoff team and the
Warriors would still be laying waste to the NBA!”

Ironically, Kate Fagan, a contributor on FiveThirtyEight’s “Hot Takedown” podcast marketed on the idea of trouncing hot takes, was the journalist most recently guilty of this argument. For me, counterfactuals like this don’t hold value. They’re impossible to argue because they’re entirely theoretical. The “What If?” created by this question are too numerous to accurately answer it. If Houston has Curry do they reengineer their entire offense and run what Steve Kerr runs? Whose the starting backcourt on the Harden infused Warriors? Livingston and Harden?

While statements like this make for lively conversation, they aren’t real analysis of the MVP race and should be treated as such.

Not only is Steph setting a world record for points scored with one’s mouthpiece dangling from their mouth. Now only is Steph the human Vine reel. Not only is Steph a part of an all-time great regular season team. But, he’s the real MVP. He’s like a teenager capable of folding a fitted sheet: exceptionally unique in his skill and therefore valuable above all others.